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Risk intelligence for Mali
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Federal Reserve will execute exactly 4 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, measuring a moderate pace consistent with gradual policy normalization.
Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly reflects resolution of Red Sea/Suez escalation scenario. Houthi disruptions and Iranian retaliation would suppress transit; return to normal signals de-escalation.
Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by end of August provides extended window to assess corridor recovery. Sustained closure scenario would resolve negatively.
Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by end of July indicates recovery timeline from a disruptive incident; earlier-than-expected recovery would signal contained corridor stress.
Direct passenger ferry service resumption signals normalized cross-strait relations and reduced tensions, a concrete outcome of diplomatic de-escalation efforts between US, China, and Taiwan.
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