This is the OpenWatch forecast ledger. Every prediction is hash-chained at the moment we commit to it — once written, the row cannot be edited or deleted. The chain proves the forecasts have not been altered relative to each other.
This ledger is newly established. The early record is short by design — it's growing in public. The chain does not yet prove when each row was written (external timestamp anchoring is on the Phase 3 roadmap). The platform's 2025–2027 forecast horizon means most rows are not yet resolved.
Featured — Scenario forecasts (human-reviewed)
6 top-level · 98 rows
Taiwan Strait
taiwan-strait:top · horizon Fixed 2026-12-31 horizon chosen to match the scenario's stated near-term coercive-signalling window. · seq 1–3
These are the plausible outcomes we've identified — not a claim that every outcome is covered. Unforeseen developments are possible and may be severely adverse. The scenario's void/'surprise' rate is published below as it accumulates.
Red Sea and Suez
red-sea-suez:top · horizon Fixed 2026-12-31 horizon matching the scenario's near-term disruption window. · seq 16–18
These are the plausible outcomes we've identified — not a claim that every outcome is covered. Unforeseen developments are possible and may be severely adverse. The scenario's void/'surprise' rate is published below as it accumulates.
US Federal Reserve policy
fed-policy-reversal:top · horizon Fixed 2026-12-31 horizon matching the scenario's 12-month policy-pivot window. · seq 31–33
These are the plausible outcomes we've identified — not a claim that every outcome is covered. Unforeseen developments are possible and may be severely adverse. The scenario's void/'surprise' rate is published below as it accumulates.
European energy supply
eu-energy-crisis:top · horizon Extended 2027-06-30 horizon to span a full winter heating season. · seq 46–48
These are the plausible outcomes we've identified — not a claim that every outcome is covered. Unforeseen developments are possible and may be severely adverse. The scenario's void/'surprise' rate is published below as it accumulates.
China property and credit
china-property:top · horizon Extended 2027-06-30 horizon matching the scenario's near-term contagion window. · seq 61–63
These are the plausible outcomes we've identified — not a claim that every outcome is covered. Unforeseen developments are possible and may be severely adverse. The scenario's void/'surprise' rate is published below as it accumulates.
Generative AI infrastructure
ai-infrastructure:top · horizon Extended 2027-06-30 horizon matching the scenario's near-term bottleneck window. · seq 76–78
These are the plausible outcomes we've identified — not a claim that every outcome is covered. Unforeseen developments are possible and may be severely adverse. The scenario's void/'surprise' rate is published below as it accumulates.
Featured — WatchBrief claims (reviewed + approved)
0 rows
No approved WatchBrief claims yet. The brief worker emits a structured forecast_claim per brief; reviewed-and-approved ones appear here. Pending claims appear in the segregated section below.
Segregated — pending automated claims (unreviewed)
0 awaiting review
These claims were extracted automatically from briefs by an AI model and have not yet been reviewed. They are in the hash chain (committed, immutable) so we cannot un-commit a hallucinated or injected claim — but we segregate them from the reviewed feed to contain that risk. A claim approved later moves to the Featured section. A claim rejected stays here with a 'rejected' notice — never deleted.
No pending automated claims at this time. New brief-extracted claims appear here when the brief worker emits a forecast_claim that has not yet been reviewed.
Corrections — void · rejected (never dropped from public view)
0 rows
No corrections to display yet. When a forecast is rejected, voided, or later resolves outside its branch set ('surprise'), the row stays here with a visible notice — the chain doesn't tolerate deletion.