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v·0e1e144

Long-Term Trajectories

Slow-moving, high-probability arcs curated from institutional scenario sets (UN WPP, IPCC, IEA, CBO). These are the shapes we see — not the paths that will happen.

China demographic decline

China's working-age population is in structural decline — the workers of 2035 are already born or not.

Grey rhino2025–2050

Global mean surface temperature pathway through 2050

Three emissions pathways show when and by how much we overshoot the Paris 1.5°C threshold.

Grey rhino2026–2050

US federal debt trajectory through 2050

US federal debt is on an unsustainable path — the question is whether a soft landing or a forced correction arrives first.

Grey rhino2025–2050

Japan debt + demographics through 2050

Japan is running the world's only simultaneous debt crisis and demographic collapse in slow motion.

Grey rhino2025–2050

Global freshwater stress through 2050

Two-thirds of the world's population already faces water scarcity at least one month per year — and it's accelerating.

Grey rhino2025–2050

Antimicrobial resistance mortality through 2050

Drug-resistant infections already kill 1.3 million people annually — the drug pipeline is nearly empty because the economics don't work.

Grey rhino2025–2050

Sovereign AI capability gap through 2035

The US-China AI frontier is pulling exponentially away from all other nations — mid-tier powers face structural irrelevance in AI-enabled competition by 2032.

Grey rhino2025–2035