Risk intelligence for Taiwan
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China commences military offensive to establish control over Taiwan by December 31, 2026. Direct resolution trigger for partial-thaw scenario involving US-China tensions and Taiwan conflict escalation.
TW signals are stable with no significant trend. 212 events monitored over the past 7 days. No actionable thesis at this time.
Signal activity is broadly in line with current market pricing — no material divergence detected.
IMF WEO + World Bank data · Annual/quarterly release cadence · Not real-time crisis indicators · Updated Jun 2026
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AI industry downturn via three-event threshold including NVIDIA revenue decline, data center capex slowdown, and GPU price collapse—core triggers of capex-cycle overshoot and crash.
Frontier models and compute allocation post-April 2026 directly tracks the infrastructure race outcome and model deployment strategy within the frontier model race.
China attack or blockade of Taiwan during 2026 directly reflects military escalation and tensions in the Taiwan Strait that would trigger talks collapse.
China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov—directly addresses rare-earth/critical-mineral embargo scenario triggering Taiwan Strait escalation.
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