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Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth directly defines a technical recession, the core trigger for deep-recession scenario.
US recession by end of 2026 directly triggers the cascade scenario. Recession is the primary condition that prompts Fed policy reversal and rate cuts.
CPI inflation exceeding 6% in 2026 directly signals policy reversal; sustained high price growth would force Federal Reserve to maintain or raise rates rather than cut.
Fed rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 directly measure the orderly cut cycle scenario, with emergency cuts also counted toward the trigger resolution.
Stagflation before 2026 midterms explicitly names the scenario condition; combines inflation and unemployment to measure the exact macroeconomic trap driving fed policy reversal.
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Critical materials signals are bifurcated: green transition metals (copper, lithium, rare earths) have strong structural demand signals while bulk chemicals face margin compression. US CHIPS Act and Infrastructure Act are driving domestic materials demand. EU CBAM (carbon border adjustment) is reshaping global steel and aluminium trade flows.