Sector risk and signal coverage
AI-matched prediction markets โ agree or disagree, the decision is yours. Clicking opens the provider's site.
US recession by end of 2026 resolves on two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER announcement, the canonical trigger for recession-driven Fed policy reversal and rate cuts.
US recession defined by two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER announcement between Q2 2025โQ4 2026 directly measures the recession trigger underlying mild-recession-recovery scenario.
North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly instantiates sustained provocation cycle escalating to kinetic conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
Explicitly asks whether US undergoes stagflation before 2026 midterms; combines inflation and unemployment components that define stagflation trap triggered by Fed policy reversal.
Federal Reserve rate-cut decisions in 2026 directly reflect policy reversal from tightening to easing, core mechanism enabling soft-landing scenario.
For entertainment and research purposes only. OpenWatch tracks trends and signals โ not real-time prices. Data updates every 4 hours. We do not recommend any position. All wager decisions are solely your responsibility.
Markets are matched to OpenWatch scenarios by an AI worker that runs every 4 hours. New markets and price changes may not be reflected immediately.
No active themes in global financials. 3 routine OFAC updates this week. EM central bank pivot signals are tracked under the Turkey and EM opportunity themes.