AI-matched prediction markets — agree or disagree, the decision is yours. Clicking opens the provider's site.
Federal Reserve cuts at least one 25bp rate cut in 2026. Directly measures the rate-cut cycle and pauses in Fed policy action during the specified calendar year.
For entertainment and research purposes only. OpenWatch tracks trends and signals — not real-time prices. Data updates every 4 hours. We do not recommend any position. All wager decisions are solely your responsibility.
Markets are matched to OpenWatch scenarios by an AI worker that runs every 4 hours. New markets and price changes may not be reflected immediately.
Fed rate cuts of 10×25bps in 2026 directly resolve on the total number of cuts the Federal Reserve implements during the calendar year, matching the core trigger of a cut-cycle-pause scenario driven by inflation and poli
Explicitly asks whether US undergoes stagflation before 2026 midterms; combines inflation and unemployment components that define stagflation trap triggered by Fed policy reversal.
Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly measure the Fed policy reversal scenario. A soft-landing outcome typically requires measured rate cuts to support growth while controlling inflation.
Fed reversal from restrictive to accommodative policy signals recession risk. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the formal recession definition and primary outcome of fed-policy-reversal trigger.
Brent crude above $100/barrel reflects the risk-premium embedded in oil prices due to Persian Gulf shipping disruptions and war-risk concerns.
Red Sea shipping disruption is expanding to Indian Ocean lanes, driving energy shipping cost premiums of 18–24%. OPEC+ unilateral cut signals from 3 members are raising supply uncertainty. Energy assets are partially but not fully pricing the disruption risk.
No active themes in global financials. 3 routine OFAC updates this week. EM central bank pivot signals are tracked under the Turkey and EM opportunity themes.
Simultaneous supply disruptions in Chile (license backlog clearing), DRC (cobalt export signals), and Australia (port labor signals) are forming a lithium supply squeeze. EV demand signals remain unaffected. Lithium producers priced at prior-risk levels create a meaningful entry opportunity.