NATO Article 5 consultation signals from Baltic states and continued Taiwan procurement signals are driving defense spending acceleration. Markets have partially priced this but procurement backlogs and multi-year contract signals suggest sustained demand not yet in consensus estimates.
Taiwan Strait has been in an unusually calm 18-day signal period. This quiet typically precedes a period of elevated market pricing of Taiwan risk — the quiet itself is an opportunity signal as markets tend to de-risk during escalation periods.