Conviction51
Sources2
OSINT signals8
History pts30

China

country
51thin · 2 src2 of 6 signals alignedScored Sep 16, 2026

Signal breakdown

The why behind the score
🏛 Congressionalno data
🏦 Insiderno data
🎯 Prediction mktno data
🌍 Country risk90%
📋 Lobbyingno data
📡 OSINT44%
📜 Contract demandno data

Conviction history

Last ~30 daily snapshots
Aug 10, 2026 · 3830 snapshotsSep 16, 2026 · 51

Country risk

OpenWatch posture
🇨🇳 China69/100
Posture: neutralView China

OSINT evidence

Top recent signals

Prediction-market divergence

Mentioning this country
  • Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?68pp
  • Will the KIA-China rare earth trade have suffered a 30+ day halt by December 31, 2026?55pp
  • Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM. 51pp
  • Will the KIA-China rare earth trade have suffered a 30+ day halt by June 30, 2027?49pp
  • Will the Yunnan praseodymium deposit increase China's praseodymium supply by more than 1.2% by February 21, 2027?43pp
  • US-China Track 1 AI dialogue commits to shared AI safety benchmark by '27?42pp
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