By OpenWatch
Crowd Prophet
A free daily prediction-market game on Reddit, by OpenWatch. Two rounds a day, five real prediction-market questions per round, play-money only — OW$ can never be purchased or redeemed. You read the crowd and make calibrated calls; the markets resolve against reality.
Why We Built It
Crowd Prophet is practice for calibrated forecasting — the same Brier scoring we grade ourselves on. OpenWatch publishes probability estimates on real-world questions and then scores them against what actually happened, in public. The game puts you under the same measuring stick: not “were you right?” but “were you as confident as you should have been?”
Good forecasters aren't the loudest — they're the best calibrated. Crowd Prophet makes that visible, one round at a time.
How It Plays
Step 1
Allocate your OW$
Each round gives you five real prediction-market questions. Spread your play-money OW$ across YES/NO calls based on how confident you are in each.
Step 2
Lock in your calls
Once the round closes, your calls are locked. No edits, no hedging after the fact — the same discipline real forecasters work under.
Step 3
Markets resolve overnight
The questions come from live prediction markets that resolve against reality — not against opinions or votes.
Step 4
Your calibration is tracked
Every call feeds a real Brier score. Over time you see whether your 80% calls actually land 80% of the time — you vs. your subreddit.
Two rounds a day. Five questions a round. Free, forever.
Play on Reddit →