Every forecast we made, scored against what actually happened once the market resolved. Misses included — nothing here is hidden or smoothed over.
8 of those were committed on 2026-07-30 as a test batch and came due on 2026-08-29. They will never be graded. Not "not yet" — never. This is a permanent zero, not a backlog, and it is the honest reason the resolved count above is what it is.
Why: 2 were voided outright as unearned. The remaining 6 are refused by the seal gate on every grading run, because none of the batch recorded the reference price its question is measured against. Grading them would mean choosing that price after the fact — which is the exact failure that voided the previous record. The ledger is append-only and trigger-enforced, so the missing price cannot be added now, and the gate will refuse them identically for as long as the rows exist.
The gate is working as designed. Refusing to grade a forecast whose reference point was never recorded is what a fail-closed resolver is for. Publishing a number anyway would have been the bug.
8 resolved so far (too few for a reliable Brier score yet) — misses included.
Every call we have made that has since resolved, newest first. Misses are listed exactly like hits.
| Call | Committed → resolved | Our probability | Outcome | Result | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada's new retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods be in force by September 8, 2026?manifold · economics | 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-09frozen 7 days ahead | 36% | YES | Miss | 0.406 |
| Will Canada retaliate and impose tariffs against the US by Sept 15manifold · economics | 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-08frozen 7 days ahead | 36% | YES | Miss | 0.406 |
| Will the US put boots on the ground in Iran before September?manifold · geopolitics | 2026-08-07 → 2026-09-02frozen 26 days ahead | 52% | NO | Miss | 0.269 |
| 🚢 Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?manifold · geopolitics | 2026-08-11 → 2026-09-01frozen 21 days ahead | 72% | NO | Miss | 0.520 |
| US charges Strait of Hormuz transit fee by end of August?manifold · geopolitics | 2026-08-08 → 2026-09-01frozen 24 days ahead | 52% | NO | Miss | 0.269 |
| Will Trump’s proposed 50% tariff on Canada ever go in effect?manifold · economics | 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-22frozen 15 days ahead | 60% | YES | Hit | 0.160 |
| Will Trump tariff European countries over Greenland?manifold · economics | 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-15frozen 8 days ahead | 39% | NO | Hit | 0.151 |
| The US bomb Iran at least once during August?manifold · geopolitics | 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-13frozen 6 days ahead | 52% | YES | Hit | 0.232 |
How this record works
Each probability is frozen at the moment of commitment and is never edited afterwards. A call is graded only after its underlying market publicly resolves, and the grading pipeline rejects any row whose commitment does not predate that resolution — no look-ahead, and no restating an original probability. The committed and resolved dates in each row are the receipt: they show how long before the outcome existed the number was fixed.
The forecasting algorithm is currently undergoing back testing. While it is in back testing, this record may be corrected or reset as methodology errors are found. Corrections are made by excluding and archiving the affected calls — never by silent deletion — and every reset is disclosed on this page.
Reset history
2,085 open commitments awaiting resolution.
For entertainment and research purposes only. OpenWatch tracks trends and signals — not real-time prices. Data updates every 4 hours. The forecasting algorithm is currently undergoing back testing, and we do not recommend any position. All trading decisions are solely your responsibility.
Markets are matched to OpenWatch scenarios by an AI worker that runs every 4 hours. New markets and price changes may not be reflected immediately.
Brier score: 0 is a perfect forecast, 1 is the worst possible. Lower is better. A forecast is only graded once its underlying market has resolved, and only if the forecast was made strictly before that resolution (no look-ahead). Past accuracy does not predict future accuracy.