Conviction Board
country

Germany

Conviction53
Sources2
OSINT signals8
History pts30

Germany

country
53thin · 2 src2 of 6 signals alignedScored Jul 29, 2026

Signal breakdown

The why behind the score
🏛 Congressionalno data
🏦 Insiderno data
🎯 Prediction mktno data
🌍 Country risk59%
📋 Lobbyingno data
📡 OSINT73%
📜 Contract demandno data

Conviction history

Last ~30 daily snapshots
Jun 21, 2026 · 4830 snapshotsJul 29, 2026 · 59

Country risk

OpenWatch posture
🇩🇪 Germany62/100
Posture: neutralView Germany

OSINT evidence

Top recent signals

Prediction-market divergence

Mentioning this country
  • Will more than 100.000 Syrians return to Syria from Germany by March 2027?55pp
  • Will the US complete withdrawal of 5,000+ troops from Germany by August 31, 2026?53pp
  • Will Germany become more authoritarian in 2026?46pp
  • Will the US announce in 2026 it is closing a military base in Germany or Spain?37pp
  • Will Germany formally exceed NATO's 2% GDP defense spending and deploy troops outside Europe by end of 2027?27pp
  • If Germany's 2025 election votes are (fully or partially) recounted, will BSW reach 5% of votes?15pp
3485b22