Risk intelligence for GW
Guinea-Bissau signals are stable with no significant trend. 15 events monitored over the past 7 days. No actionable thesis at this time.
Signal activity is broadly in line with current market pricing — no material divergence detected.
IMF WEO + World Bank data · Annual/quarterly release cadence · Not real-time crisis indicators · Updated Sep 2026
Sanctioned entity: ANTÓNIO INJAI. Aliases: António Indjai. Program: GB.
On Sunday, July 19, Russian forces launched a missile attack on a civilian ship flying the flag of Guinea-Bissau in the Black Sea near Odesa. The vessel was departing the port with a cargo of grain when it was targeted, resulting in the deaths of 10 people.
Guinea-Bissau will hold a constitutional referendum on August 30, 2026, in which voters decide whether to approve a new constitution that would shift from semi-parliamentary governance to a strong presidential system. The referendum is being held by authorities who seized power in a November 2025 coup and is contested by opposition groups who view it as an attempt to legitimize authoritarian rule at the ballot box.
Guinea-Bissau has reported 46 suspected mpox cases and 7 confirmed cases since declaring a national outbreak on July 4, with more than half of patients being children including 16 under age four, raising concerns about undetected viral spread in the West African nation.
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