• $40 price spike per oil barrel risks adding 0.8pc to deficit • Natural disasters threaten 1.5pc fiscal hit • Tax exemptions, concessions risk a 1.3pc budget hole • 10pc tax collection shortfall costs 0.7pc of GDP • Loss-making state entities drain an extra 0.4pc ISLAMABAD: The government has warned of key risks to next year’s budget outlook, such as global oil price hikes, sluggish GDP growth, revenue shortfalls, increased debt servicing costs, state-owned entities’ poor performance, and unforeseen natural disasters and climate impacts. In a written statement of fiscal risks to parliament, required under the Public Finance Management Act 2019, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb and Finance Secretary Imdad Ullah Bosal presented these risks in seven major categories. They quantified their possible impacts on the fiscal deficit across macroeconomic, revenue, debt, state-owned entities, climate change, natural disasters, and commodity financing areas.