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Fed rate cuts of 10×25bps in 2026 directly resolve on the total number of cuts the Federal Reserve implements during the calendar year, matching the core trigger of a cut-cycle-pause scenario driven by inflation and poli
Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 defines recession; directly maps to the deep-recession branch trigger via BEA or NBER confirmation.
Explicitly asks whether US undergoes stagflation before 2026 midterms; combines inflation and unemployment components that define stagflation trap triggered by Fed policy reversal.
Fed reversal from restrictive to accommodative policy signals recession risk. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the formal recession definition and primary outcome of fed-policy-reversal trigger.
Net Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly measure the outcome of the Fed's cutting cycle and any pause or reversal in monetary policy stance.
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Red Sea shipping disruption is expanding to Indian Ocean lanes, driving energy shipping cost premiums of 18–24%. OPEC+ unilateral cut signals from 3 members are raising supply uncertainty. Energy assets are partially but not fully pricing the disruption risk.