Sector risk and signal coverage
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China commences military offensive to establish control over Taiwan by December 31, 2026. Direct resolution trigger for partial-thaw scenario involving US-China tensions and Taiwan conflict escalation.
China attack or blockade of Taiwan during 2026 directly reflects military escalation and tensions in the Taiwan Strait that would trigger talks collapse.
China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov—directly addresses rare-earth/critical-mineral embargo scenario triggering Taiwan Strait escalation.
Brent crude above $100/barrel reflects the risk-premium embedded in oil prices due to Persian Gulf shipping disruptions and war-risk concerns.
Iran officially announces blockade/closure of Strait of Hormuz for >48 consecutive hours by July 2026. Direct match to cascade branch trigger on Strait closure threat.
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Nearshoring and re-industrialisation signals are generating a multi-year capex cycle in factory equipment, rail, and infrastructure. US Infrastructure Investment Act and EU Green Deal spending are flowing through to industrial order books. Defence adjacency (sensors, propulsion) provides additional tailwind.