Sector risk and signal coverage
AI-matched prediction markets — agree or disagree, the decision is yours. Clicking opens the provider's site.
Frontier model capability milestone (Chatbot Arena score ≥1600) directly measures advancement in frontier AI models, a core component of infrastructure-driven model race dynamics.
Military clash between China and Taiwan forces directly materializes the core tension scenario. Resolution hinges on whether partial thaw prevents escalation to armed conflict.
NVIDIA's AI accelerator revenue share exceeding 80% in H2 2026 directly quantifies monopoly deepening in GPU/accelerator markets, the core infrastructure constraint.
Quarterly capex spend among AI hyperscalers decreases before 2028. Directly measures the core trigger of the hyperscaler-capex-slashed scenario across Microsoft, Meta, and other major AI infrastructure investors.
EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI lab directly operationalizes regulatory constraints on AI infrastructure through compliance mechanisms and legal consequences.
For entertainment and research purposes only. OpenWatch tracks trends and signals — not real-time prices. Data updates every 4 hours. The forecasting algorithm is currently undergoing back testing, and we do not recommend any position. All trading decisions are solely your responsibility.
Markets are matched to OpenWatch scenarios by an AI worker that runs every 4 hours. New markets and price changes may not be reflected immediately.
AI infrastructure buildout is driving sustained capex cycles across cloud, data centres and enterprise software. Geopolitical reshoring of semiconductor supply chains (CHIPS Act, EU Chips Act) is accelerating domestic tech investment. Market valuations remain elevated but earnings revisions are positive across hyperscalers.