Sector risk and signal coverage
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Frontier model achieving 90% on FrontierMath directly measures state-of-the-art AI model capability advancement—core metric tracking frontier model race progression and compute allocation efficiency across leading labs.
Timing of AI sector correction triggered by capex cycle overshoot and subsequent crash. Core trigger for branch resolution.
Frontier models and compute allocation post-April 2026 directly tracks the infrastructure race outcome and model deployment strategy within the frontier model race.
Frontier model competition via Epoch Capabilities Index, measuring advancement of leading AI models in the race.
AI bubble pop timing. Capex overshoot and crash cascade branches on this bubble-burst signal in AI infrastructure sector.
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Markets are matched to OpenWatch scenarios by an AI worker that runs every 4 hours. New markets and price changes may not be reflected immediately.
AI data centre power demand is creating an unprecedented electricity demand signal — US grid operators are revising 10-year load forecasts up 15-20%. Nuclear relicensing signals (3 US plants, 2 EU) provide long-duration baseload optionality. Rate cuts expanding the duration-sensitive utility multiple. Utilities are trading at decade-low valuations relative to bond proxies.