Biggest risk score changes in the last 24 hours
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Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth directly defines a technical recession, the core trigger for deep-recession scenario.
Military encounter between China and Taiwan forces directly triggered by Taiwan Strait tensions and PLA exercises; talks collapse accelerates military risk.
No Fed rate cuts in 2026 represents the inverse scenario to an orderly cut cycle, triggered by unchanged federal funds rate policy throughout the year.
Stagflation before 2026 midterms explicitly names the scenario condition; combines inflation and unemployment to measure the exact macroeconomic trap driving fed policy reversal.
Fed rate cuts in 2026 are a primary transmission mechanism for soft-landing scenarios. The number of cuts directly reflects monetary policy easing that supports growth while controlling inflation.
Control of the Strait of Hormuz on December 1, 2026 directly measures whether the sustained-corridor-closure scenario has resolved, with Iran potentially blocking or restricting passage through this critical oil chokepoi
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Biggest OSINT score changes in the last 24 hours.
Score = composite threat/opportunity index (0–100). Green = rising, Red = falling.