Biggest risk score changes in the last 24 hours
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Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER recession declaration directly triggers the deep-recession branch scenario, matching all core confirmatory signals.
AI industry downturn triggered by multiple events including NVIDIA performance decline, directly matching capex-cycle overshoot and crash scenario with GPU/data center overbuild resolution criteria.
Fed rate cuts of 10×25bps in 2026 directly resolve on the total number of cuts the Federal Reserve implements during the calendar year, matching the core trigger of a cut-cycle-pause scenario driven by inflation and poli
The US will experience stagflation before the end of 2026. Directly matches the scenario's core thesis of a stagflation-trap emerging from Fed policy reversal, combining high inflation with economic contraction.
US stagflation before 2026 midterms captures the timeframe and dual conditions of elevated inflation and weak growth that define stagflation traps triggered by monetary policy missteps.
US recession in 2026 is the primary trigger for fed-policy-reversal scenario, causing Fed quantitative easing and unemployment increases.
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Biggest OSINT score changes in the last 24 hours.
Score = composite threat/opportunity index (0–100). Green = rising, Red = falling.