HIGH IMPACT[60% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Banking sector contagion [30%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[40% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
PBOC engineering controlled deleveraging
PBOC orchestrates shadow bank wind-downs; regional bank recaps funded by central government; credit contraction managed over 18-24 months.
Trade lens —GLD and TLT bid through the 18-month managed wind-down; HSBC absorbs credit drag; SGD-banking inflow accelerates. · structural · slow
Policy lens —PBOC and CBIRC publish a coordinated shadow-banking wind-down calendar with explicit backstop facilities for eligible institutions; Beijing releases a CNY 500B recapitalisation allocation for systemically important regional banks; the Financial Stability Board opens a multilateral peer review of China shadow-banking exposure.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
60%
China Property
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~20%
Banking sector
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.