HIGH IMPACT[60% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Banking sector contagion [30%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[25% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Full financial crisis, IMF intervention
Bank runs spread; yuan under severe pressure; capital controls imposed; PBOC requests IMF stabilization support; global contagion spreads.
Trade lens —GLD to $3,000+ and TLT below 3.5% on flight-to-quality; HSBC repriced existentially; CHF safe-haven flow spikes; HKD-peg under speculative attack. · structural · slow
Policy lens —Beijing formally requests IMF Article XIV consultations and accepts exchange-restriction safeguards; the PBOC implements comprehensive capital controls under State Council authority; G7 leaders convene an emergency summit and activate the Financial Stability Board Global Crisis Protocol.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
60%
China Property
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~20%
Banking sector
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.