HIGH IMPACT[60% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Export-led stimulus pivot [20%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[35% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
US/EU tariff escalation in response
US imposes 60%+ tariffs on Chinese goods; EU follows with 35-45% tariffs; China retaliates; global trade volumes contract sharply.
Trade lens —FSLR and INTC bid on tariff protection; AAPL and European auto OEMs carry China-retaliation exposure; Mexican peso and Vietnam FDI capture diversion premium. · meaningful · slow
Policy lens —USTR invokes Section 301 and imposes a full tariff schedule on Chinese goods; the EU activates the Anti-Coercion Instrument in parallel; Beijing designates US semiconductor and pharmaceutical companies under its Unreliable Entity List and files a WTO dispute.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
60%
China Property
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~10%
Export-led stimulus
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.