MODERATE IMPACT[55% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Inflation resurgence [20%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[30% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Wage-price spiral takes hold
Unit labor costs rise 5%+ YoY as unions win multi-year contracts; services inflation entrenched; Fed forced into aggressive hike sequence.
Trade lens —GS rate-vol desk benefits; NEM at $2,800+ gold; MSFT and long-duration equities compress as discount rates rise; BoJ-policy stress lifts JGB vol. · structural · slow
Policy lens —FOMC adopts a restrictive policy rate well above the neutral estimate; the NLRB faces Republican pressure to limit multi-year union contracts; the G7 issues a joint statement on wage-price spiral risk and coordinated monetary restraint.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
55%
US Federal
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~10%
Inflation resurgence
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.