MODERATE IMPACT[55% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Orderly rate cut cycle [50%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[30% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Cuts pause at 2 — wait and see
Fed executes only 2 cuts before pausing; mixed signals on inflation; markets oscillate; soft landing narrative not fully confirmed.
Trade lens —JPM NIM stays elevated; GLD bid on rate uncertainty; DHI and growth names left wanting on partial-cut disappointment; BRL softens at the margin. · small move · fast
Policy lens —FOMC pauses at 2 cuts and adopts a 'data-dependent hold' statement; Chair Powell testifies to Congress on persistent inflation risks; the Senate Banking Committee opens oversight hearings on the pace of rate normalisation.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
55%
US Federal
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~30%
Orderly rate
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.