MODERATE IMPACT[55% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Orderly rate cut cycle [50%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[50% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Soft landing confirmed
Unemployment plateaus at 4.2%; GDP prints 2%+; risk assets rally 15-20% as rate-cut cycle confirmed; PE multiples expand.
Trade lens —DHI mortgage-rate beta bid; MSFT and tech-megacap multiples expand; BRK.B cash float compresses; INR and Sensex catch the EM-inflow rerating. · meaningful · fast
Policy lens —FOMC delivers a 'soft-landing confirmed' statement and publishes forward guidance flagging 2-3 additional cuts; Treasury Department issues a debt-buyback programme to lock in lower long-end rates; G20 finance ministers endorse coordinated growth-supportive fiscal postures.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
55%
US Federal
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~30%
Orderly rate
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.