MODERATE IMPACT[55% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Recession-driven cuts [30%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[35% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Deep recession — unemployment 6%+
Fed cuts to zero; QE restarts; unemployment reaches 6-7%; S&P falls 35%+ from peak; credit crunch in high-yield markets.
Trade lens —TLT and GLD bid hard; high-yield (HYG) and risk assets compress sharply; BRL and TRY take EM capital-flight damage. · structural · slow
Policy lens —FOMC restarts QE and cuts to the ZLB; Treasury and the White House announce a fiscal-stimulus package exceeding 5% of GDP; the G7 activates a coordinated swap-line network and the IMF pre-emptively opens emergency-financing consultations with Turkey and Brazil.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
55%
US Federal
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~15%
Recession-driven cuts
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.