MODERATE IMPACT[55% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Recession-driven cuts [30%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[20% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Stagflation trap
Recession hits but inflation stays sticky at 4%+; Fed cannot cut aggressively; 1970s-style policy paralysis; real asset outperformance.
Trade lens —XOM and NEM outperform on real-asset tailwind; MSFT and tech multiples compress; INR squeezed on twin import-and-growth pressure. · structural · slow
Policy lens —FOMC faces a 1970s-style policy-paralysis debate between hiking to tame inflation and cutting to support employment; the White House activates emergency energy-price regulations; Congress debates a windfall-profits tax on energy producers.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
55%
US Federal
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~15%
Recession-driven cuts
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.