ELEVATED IMPACT[45% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Diplomatic re-engagement[25% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Diplomatic re-engagement
Back-channel diplomacy produces a renewed talks framework — possibly a US-DPRK summit or an inter-Korean working group; provocations pause; KOSPI re-rates higher as the peninsular discount compresses.
⚡ 280 supporting signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
ScenarioAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.45%×BranchConditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.25%=PathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.~10%
If this branch plays out and you weren't positioned, here's what you'd miss or take. AI-generated estimates, not forecasts.
▲ Missed gains if not positioned
low confidence🌐KR+10%in 6mo
low confidence📈$EWY+15%in 1yr
▼ Realized losses if not hedged
low confidence📈$LMT−5%in 1yr
Magnitudes assume — IF the branch materialises — the moves described. Actual moves depend on timing, prior positioning, and intervening events.
View as
Policy lens —Washington and Pyongyang restore a liaison-office back-channel and issue a joint statement committing to confidence-building measures; Seoul proposes an inter-Korean economic working group and the US signals readiness to suspend joint exercises for a defined period; the UN Special Envoy for Korean Peninsula Affairs is reactivated.
Trade lens —Korea ETF (EWY) and Samsung (005930.KS) re-rate higher as peninsular discount compresses; defense procurement urgency (LMT) gives back; JPY safe-haven bid fades. · meaningful · fast
Sub-outcomes coming soon
Information cutoff: 2026-05-21 · Authored: AI-generated, council-reviewed · Live signal counts updated hourly
Not investment advice. Always verify independently with a qualified financial advisor.