ELEVATED IMPACT[50% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Elevated risk premium baseline [55%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[60% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Proxy-conflict cycle, no direct state action
Iran-backed forces and Israeli / US responses continue in a familiar tempo; no sustained corridor closure; oil-price risk premium fluctuates in a $5-10 band; markets discount events as priced-in.
Trade lens —LMT and RTX sustain regional air-defense restocking; INR carries persistent import-bill pressure; oil-price band trades in a 5-10 dollar risk-premium range. · small move · fast
Policy lens —CENTCOM activates the Combined Maritime Forces Task Force 152 rules of engagement; the State Department issues formal diplomatic notifications to Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Baghdad on proxy-force responsibilities; Washington coordinates Patriot battery rotations with Saudi and UAE under active FMS contracts.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
50%
Middle East
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~30%
Elevated risk
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.