ELEVATED IMPACT[70% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Military resolution [30%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[35% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Conflict drags on 6-12 months
Coalition degrades but cannot fully suppress Houthi capability; shipping remains partially disrupted; rates stay elevated but below peak.
Trade lens —ZIM carries an elevated-but-below-peak premium; Stellantis (STLAM) and WMT keep absorbing supply-chain volatility; INR holds an elevated cost-basis floor. · small move · fast
Policy lens —Coalition partners debate burden-sharing obligations as the operation extends; Gulf Cooperation Council members press Washington for a political resolution track; IMF and World Bank establish a Red Sea economic-impact monitoring facility.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
70%
Red Sea
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~20%
Military resolution
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.