ELEVATED IMPACT[70% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Military resolution [30%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[20% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Escalation pulls in Iran directly
Coalition strikes trigger Iranian retaliation against Gulf targets; conflict expands to Strait of Hormuz; oil markets enter crisis mode.
Trade lens —XOM and Cheniere (LNG) gap higher on Hormuz risk; airlines (DAL) compress on jet-fuel shock. · meaningful · fast
Policy lens —Washington invokes IEEPA and designates IRGC-linked entities under emergency economic powers; the UN Security Council convenes an emergency session as Gulf states request Article 51 collective self-defence consultations; OPEC+ holds an extraordinary meeting on production offsets.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
70%
Red Sea
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~20%
Military resolution
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.