ELEVATED IMPACT[70% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Military resolution [30%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[45% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Swift coalition operation restores access
Precision strikes eliminate Houthi anti-ship capability within weeks; Red Sea shipping resumes within 60 days; freight rates normalize quickly.
Trade lens —ZIM spot rates collapse from elevated peak; RTX and LMT restock at multi-year pace; Egyptian pound stabilises as Suez fees recover. · meaningful · fast
Policy lens —Washington declares deterrence restored and begins coalition drawdown; Suez Canal Authority coordinates with IMO to lift high-risk designation; Cairo accesses accelerated IMF disbursements as canal revenues recover.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
70%
Red Sea
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~20%
Military resolution
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.