ELEVATED IMPACT[70% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Permanent Cape rerouting [55%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[25% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Supply chain nearshoring accelerates
Shipping cost and reliability shock accelerates decisions to move production closer to end markets; Asian export model loses edge.
Trade lens —Mexican peso and Polish FDI flows accelerate; industrial real estate (AMT) and distributed-power (GNRC, CMI) bid; Chinese and Vietnamese export beta compresses. · structural · slow
Policy lens —Washington accelerates bilateral nearshoring investment treaties with Mexico and Poland; the EU activates its Strategic Autonomy supply-chain diversification instruments; Beijing and Hanoi face coordinated market-access reviews from trading partners as production shifts accelerate.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
70%
Red Sea
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~40%
Permanent Cape
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.