ELEVATED IMPACT[70% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Permanent Cape rerouting [55%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[35% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Canal revenues collapse, Egypt crisis
Suez transit fees drop 60%+; Egypt loses $6B+ annual revenue; IMF emergency package required; pound devalues sharply.
Trade lens —Egyptian pound devalues sharply and EGX risk premium blows out; gold (GLD) catches EM-crisis bid; Tangier Med routing names benefit at Egypt expense. · structural · slow
Policy lens —Cairo enters IMF Article IV emergency consultations and imposes capital controls; GCC creditors negotiate a bilateral liquidity bridge; the Arab League convenes an extraordinary session on Suez revenue and regional economic contagion.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
70%
Red Sea
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~40%
Permanent Cape
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.