ELEVATED IMPACT[70% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Regional war escalation [15%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[35% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Gulf energy infrastructure targeted
Missile strikes hit Saudi Aramco facilities or UAE terminals; global oil supply cut 3-5M bbl/day; Brent spikes above $130.
Trade lens —XOM and US LNG (LNG) re-rate on global oil-supply removal; airlines (DAL) compress on jet-fuel cost; INR and KRW under crisis pressure. · structural · slow
Policy lens —IEA triggers a coordinated Strategic Petroleum Reserve release among member states; Washington imposes full-blocking sanctions on Saudi Aramco counterparts implicated in Iranian supply chains; New Delhi and Seoul request emergency bilateral energy-security consultations with Washington.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
70%
Red Sea
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~10%
Regional war
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.