ELEVATED IMPACT[70% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Regional war escalation [15%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[40% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Iran threatens Strait of Hormuz
Iran announces partial Strait of Hormuz restrictions; ~20M bbl/day at risk; oil markets price in worst-case; insurance costs prohibitive.
Trade lens —XOM Permian and Cheniere (LNG) price to record spot; gold (GLD) bid to $3,000+; high-yield credit widens sharply on recession risk; JP and CN crude-import exposure crystallises. · structural · slow
Policy lens —Washington invokes the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and coordinates Hormuz freedom-of-navigation operations with UK and French naval assets; Tokyo declares an energy emergency and activates strategic oil reserves; Beijing backs a UNSC ceasefire resolution as its own crude-import exposure crystallises.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
70%
Red Sea
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~10%
Regional war
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.