HIGH IMPACT[65% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Export control escalation [35%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[40% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
China rare earth embargo
Beijing restricts gallium, germanium, and graphite exports globally; Western defense and EV supply chains exposed; emergency stockpiling begins.
Trade lens —Rare-earth processors (MP, LAC) re-rate sharply higher; US auto OEMs (GM) compress on EV-magnet supply break; Australian critical-minerals capex pulled forward. · structural · slow
Policy lens —Washington invokes Defense Production Act authorities over gallium and germanium reserves; Brussels activates the EU Critical Raw Materials Act emergency chapter; Canberra and Ottawa fast-track bilateral critical-minerals agreements with G7 partners.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
65%
Taiwan Strait
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~25%
Export control
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.