HIGH IMPACT[65% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Military pressure campaign [40%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[30% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Extended stalemate (3-6 months)
Exercises continue at lower intensity; no resolution; semi-permanent elevated military presence on both sides; global supply chains restructure defensively.
Trade lens —TSM carries a persistent risk discount; equipment names (AMAT, KLAC) bid on ex-China capex pivot; INR and VND beta lift on production-relocation flows. · structural · slow
Policy lens —Allied capitals impose coordinated investment screening on Chinese semiconductor acquisitions; the Quad formalises a technology-security working group; India and Vietnam conclude bilateral supply-chain resilience frameworks with Washington.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
65%
Taiwan Strait
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~25%
Military pressure
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.