Geopolitical risk signals and prediction market coverage
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North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly instantiates the sustained-provocation-cycle escalating to kinetic conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
Military encounter between PRC and Taiwan forces Nov 2025–Dec 2026 directly represents escalation trigger in partial-thaw scenario where US-China tensions over Taiwan and export controls drive confrontation.
China attack or blockade of Taiwan during 2026 directly reflects military escalation and tensions in the Taiwan Strait that would trigger talks collapse.
Timing of AI sector correction triggered by capex cycle overshoot and subsequent crash. Core trigger for branch resolution.
EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI lab directly materializes regulatory constraint on AI infrastructure development and compliance obligations.
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