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US recession definition directly triggers the cascade: two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Q2 2025–Q4 2026 would activate recession-driven rate cuts by the Fed.
Federal Reserve will execute 10 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, representing a standard orderly cutting cycle aligned with the scenario trigger.
Explicitly asks whether US undergoes stagflation before 2026 midterms; combines inflation and unemployment components that define stagflation trap triggered by Fed policy reversal.
Directly asks whether US experiences stagflation before end of 2026. Stagflation (simultaneous high inflation and recession) is the core outcome of fed-policy-reversal scenario triggering the cascade branch.
Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly measures resolution of sustained corridor closure. If closure persists, traffic remains disrupted; if corridor reopens, traffic returns to normal.
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