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Q2 2026 US real GDP growth threshold tests whether economic recovery is underway in mid-2026, relevant to assessing the timing and strength of post-recession recovery.
Federal funds rate falling below 2.5% by July 2026 reflects sustained easing consistent with an orderly multi-cut cycle through mid-year.
Federal funds rate falling below 2.5% by end-July 2026 would indicate the Fed has reversed course and cut rates substantially, consistent with post-resurgence policy pivot.
US gas price spikes directly reflect energy supply disruptions and LNG market dynamics. EU energy crisis cascades to global spot prices and US pump prices through interconnected energy markets.
Federal funds rate remaining above 2.5% through July 2026 indicates Fed holding or raising rates due to inflation persistence, preventing aggressive easing.
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