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US recession definition directly triggers the cascade: two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Q2 2025–Q4 2026 would activate recession-driven rate cuts by the Fed.
Federal Reserve will execute 10 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, representing a standard orderly cutting cycle aligned with the scenario trigger.
Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly resolve on the pause-versus-cut decision. A policy reversal toward pause means zero cuts; this market explicitly measures that scenario.
Directly asks whether US experiences stagflation before end of 2026. Stagflation (simultaneous high inflation and recession) is the core outcome of fed-policy-reversal scenario triggering the cascade branch.
Explicitly asks whether US undergoes stagflation before 2026 midterms; combines inflation and unemployment components that define stagflation trap triggered by Fed policy reversal.
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