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Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth directly defines a technical recession, the core trigger for deep-recession scenario.
US recession by end of 2026 directly measures the recession trigger condition. A mild-recession-recovery scenario requires recession occurrence and subsequent recovery trajectory.
Stagflation before 2026 midterms explicitly names the scenario condition; combines inflation and unemployment to measure the exact macroeconomic trap driving fed policy reversal.
Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by end-2026 endpoint captures sustained-corridor-closure scenario resolution; measures direct passage of closure period.
Food shortage triggered by Strait of Hormuz closure directly reflects corridor stress from tanker disruption and naval conflict affecting global supply chains.
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