Geopolitical risk signals and prediction market coverage
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Federal Reserve executes 12 or more rate cuts in 2026, directly measuring the orderly cut cycle scenario triggered by fed-policy-reversal conditions.
Explicitly addresses stagflation before end of 2026, matching the exact scenario name and all confirmatory signal terms: stagflation, inflation, recession, and unemployment dynamics.
Destroyed tanker in the Strait of Hormuz by mid-2026 directly reflects tanker-incident escalation and physical damage to shipping infrastructure in the critical corridor.
Quantifies shipping volume through Strait of Hormuz on specific date, directly measuring corridor stress from tanker incident scenarios.
Recession timing, core trigger for mild-recession-recovery branch. Resolution depends on recession occurrence and timing, central to fed-policy-reversal scenario.