Geopolitical risk signals and prediction market coverage
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North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly instantiates the sustained-provocation-cycle escalating to kinetic conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization is a direct indicator of oil corridor disruption risk. Return to normal signals de-escalation of war risk premium in regional shipping.
Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization is the direct outcome measure of a tanker-incident corridor stress scenario. Disruption and recovery timeline directly reflects the severity and duration of the incident.
KIA-China rare earth trade disruption by end-2026 serves as key indicator of embargo implementation during Taiwan Strait tensions.
Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by end-2026 endpoint captures sustained-corridor-closure scenario resolution; measures direct passage of closure period.
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