Geopolitical risk signals and prediction market coverage
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China commences military offensive against Taiwan. Directly triggered by Taiwan Strait tensions, PLA military exercises, and collapse of diplomatic talks that prevent armed conflict.
China attack or blockade of Taiwan during 2026 directly reflects military escalation and tensions in the Taiwan Strait that would trigger talks collapse.
China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov—directly addresses rare-earth/critical-mineral embargo scenario triggering Taiwan Strait escalation.
Destroyed tanker in the Strait of Hormuz by mid-2026 directly reflects tanker-incident escalation and physical damage to shipping infrastructure in the critical corridor.
Quantifies shipping volume through Strait of Hormuz on specific date, directly measuring corridor stress from tanker incident scenarios.