Geopolitical risk signals and prediction market coverage
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Military encounter between China and Taiwan forces directly triggers escalation within the partial-thaw scenario. Defined as use of force including missile strikes or artillery fire between November 2025 and December 202
Military encounter between China and Taiwan forces triggers market resolution. Taiwan Strait tensions and PLA exercises directly precede or coincide with talks collapse scenarios.
China commences military offensive to control Taiwan by December 31, 2026. Directly triggered by escalation in US-China tensions, export controls, and Taiwan strait military posturing under partial-thaw scenario conditio
China attack or blockade of Taiwan during 2026 directly reflects military escalation and tensions in the Taiwan Strait that would trigger talks collapse.
Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization is a direct indicator of oil corridor disruption risk. Return to normal signals de-escalation of war risk premium in regional shipping.
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