Nasdaq 100
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Military encounter between China and Taiwan forces directly triggers escalation within the partial-thaw scenario. Defined as use of force including missile strikes or artillery fire between November 2025 and December 202
China attack or blockade of Taiwan during 2026 directly reflects military escalation and tensions in the Taiwan Strait that would trigger talks collapse.
Timing of AI sector correction triggered by capex cycle overshoot and subsequent crash. Core trigger for branch resolution.
Quarterly capex spend among AI hyperscalers decreasing before 2028 directly triggers the hyperscaler-capex-slashed branch. Encompasses Microsoft, Meta, and GPU infrastructure investment cycles.
EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI labs directly tests whether European regulatory framework creates divergence in compliance costs and operational constraints versus U.S. approach to AI infrastructure gove
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