ELEVATED IMPACT[70% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Regional war escalation [15%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[25% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Great power intervention stabilizes region
US and China coordinate unprecedented diplomatic intervention; ceasefire brokered; Hormuz stays open; both powers claim strategic gain.
Trade lens —XOM bid on stabilisation but elevated-oil overhang persists; LMT defense-emergency premium caps; ZIM freight collapses on diplomatic resolution. · meaningful · fast
Policy lens —Washington and Beijing jointly sponsor a UNSC ceasefire resolution; the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation endorses the diplomatic framework; Gulf states grant both powers expanded basing rights as de-escalation incentives.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
70%
Red Sea
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~10%
Regional war
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.