HIGH IMPACT[65% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Export control escalation [35%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[25% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Multilateral controls alignment
EU, Japan, South Korea, and Netherlands formally align with US export controls; ASML fully restricted; Wassenaar Arrangement updated.
Trade lens —ASML reprices on full China-business closure; TSM Arizona gains strategic premium; QCOM China-handset revenue runs to zero. · structural · slow
Policy lens —Washington, The Hague, Tokyo, Seoul, and Brussels sign a Semiconductor Export Control Alignment accord; the Wassenaar Arrangement is formally amended to cover EUV and advanced-packaging tools; Beijing lodges formal protests at the WTO and UN Security Council.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
65%
Taiwan Strait
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~25%
Export control
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.