AI-matched prediction markets — agree or disagree, the decision is yours. Clicking opens the provider's site.
Frontier model capability milestone (Chatbot Arena score ≥1600) directly measures advancement in frontier AI models, a core component of infrastructure-driven model race dynamics.
For entertainment and research purposes only. OpenWatch tracks trends and signals — not real-time prices. Data updates every 4 hours. The forecasting algorithm is currently undergoing back testing, and we do not recommend any position. All trading decisions are solely your responsibility.
Markets are matched to OpenWatch scenarios by an AI worker that runs every 4 hours. New markets and price changes may not be reflected immediately.
ASML's EUV monopoly is irreplaceable for leading-edge nodes. High-NA EUV shipping to Intel, TSMC, Samsung. Chinese DUV restrictions tightened but China revenue remains material. Service revenue growing as installed base expands. Memory recovery and AI capex provide multi-year tailwinds. Reset valuation post correction is attractive.
Thesis reviewed May 29, 2026
ASML Holding N.V. is headquartered in Netherlands, which is currently showing moderate signals.
🇳🇱Netherlands53NEUTRALView Netherlands risk detail →💻Semiconductors1WATCH| Ticker | Company | Score | Gap | Signal Δ | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | Applied Materials, Inc. | 11 | +14% | ↓92% | EARLY |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 11 | +16% | ↓92% | EARLY |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | 11 | +14% | ↓92% | EARLY |
| ON | ON Semiconductor Corporation | 11 | -12% | ↓92% | AVOID |
| WOLF | Wolfspeed Inc. | 11 | -29% | ↓92% | AVOID |
| UMC | United Microelectronics Corporation | 11 | +7% | ↓92% | NEUTRAL |
| STM | STMicroelectronics N.V. | 11 | +12% | ↓92% | NEUTRAL |
Investors who hold ASML may also have indirect exposure through these country funds.
First high-NA EUV system at TSMC operational
ASML 2027 guidance reiterates 30%+ revenue growth
Memory orders inflection visible in bookings
Estimates · Yahoo Finance · Not audited figures
AI industry downturn triggered by multiple events within 90 days—directly captures capex overshoot and crash scenario. NVIDIA underperformance is one of the specified resolution criteria.
EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI labs directly measures European regulatory implementation and compliance mechanisms central to US-EU regulatory divergence on AI infrastructure.
EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI lab directly operationalizes regulatory constraints on AI infrastructure through compliance mechanisms and legal consequences.
NVIDIA's AI accelerator revenue share exceeding 80% in H2 2026 directly quantifies monopoly deepening in GPU/accelerator markets, the core infrastructure constraint.
| Politician | Party | Type | Amount | Trade Date | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Buy | $1k–$15k | Mar 31, 26 | ||
| Alan Armstrong | Buy | $50k–$100k | Mar 30, 26 | ||
| Jared MoskowitzFL | D | Buy | $1k–$15k | Mar 31, 26 | +12.1% |
| Jared MoskowitzFL | D | Buy | $1k–$15k | Mar 23, 26 | +12.1% |
| Gilbert CisnerosCA | D | Buy | $1k–$15k | Jan 30, 26 | +14.9% |
| Jonathan JacksonIL | D | Buy | Unknown amount | Oct 28, 24 | +138.0% |
| Marjorie Taylor Mrs GreeneGA | R | Buy | $1k–$15k | Nov 25, 24 | +143.7% |
| Marjorie Taylor Mrs GreeneGA | R | Buy | $1k–$15k | Oct 21, 24 | +127.2% |
| Marjorie Taylor Mrs GreeneGA | R | Buy | $1k–$15k | Oct 4, 24 | +98.7% |
| Josh GottheimerNJ | D | Sell | $1k–$15k | Sep 23, 24 | +96.7% |
| Marjorie Taylor Mrs GreeneGA | R | Buy | $1k–$15k | Jun 24, 24 | +59.6% |
| Thomas H Tuberville | Sell | $15k–$50k | May 3, 24 | +59.6% |