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Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER recession declaration directly triggers the deep-recession branch scenario, matching all core confirmatory signals.
US recession by end of 2026 directly triggers rate cuts; recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) is the primary economic shock driving Fed policy reversal from tightening to easing.
The US will experience stagflation before the end of 2026. Directly matches the scenario's core thesis of a stagflation-trap emerging from Fed policy reversal, combining high inflation with economic contraction.
US stagflation before 2026 midterms captures the timeframe and dual conditions of elevated inflation and weak growth that define stagflation traps triggered by monetary policy missteps.
US recession in 2026 is the primary trigger for fed-policy-reversal scenario, causing Fed quantitative easing and unemployment increases.
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Freeport is the largest publicly traded copper producer with low-cost Indonesian and Americas portfolio. Copper supply-demand structural deficit is widening with grid electrification, AI data center build-out, and EV adoption. Grasberg underground is fully ramped. Leach technology projects add zero-capex copper pounds. Best pure-play copper exposure.
Thesis reviewed May 29, 2026
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is headquartered in United States, which is currently showing moderate signals.
🇺🇸United States70REDUCEView United States risk detail →⛏Mining6WATCH| Ticker | Company | Score | Gap | Signal Δ | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM | First Quantum Minerals Ltd. | 14 | -7% | ↓65% | AVOID |
| IVN | Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. | 14 | +17% | ↓65% | EARLY |
| MIN.AX | Mineral Resources | 14 | — | ↓65% | NEUTRAL |
| NEM | Newmont Corporation | 14 | +10% | ↓65% | EARLY |
| CX | CEMEX S.A.B. de C.V. | 14 | +5% | ↓65% | NEUTRAL |
| RIO | Rio Tinto plc | 14 | +10% | ↓65% | EARLY |
| SAND | Sandstorm Gold Royalties Ltd. | 14 | +10% | ↓65% | EARLY |
Investors who hold FCX may also have indirect exposure through these country funds.
Copper price hits $5/lb on TC/RC collapse
Indonesia smelter complete, exports normalized
AI data center electrification fuels copper demand forecasts
Estimates · Yahoo Finance · Not audited figures
| Politician | Party | Type | Amount | Trade Date | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Buy | $1k–$15k | Mar 27, 26 | ||
| Josh GottheimerNJ | D | Buy | $1k–$15k | Apr 15, 26 | +11.9% |
| Josh GottheimerNJ | D | Buy | $1k–$15k | Sep 24, 24 | +35.1% |
| Josh GottheimerNJ | D | Buy | $1k–$15k | Jul 19, 24 | +54.3% |
| Josh GottheimerNJ | D | Buy | $1k–$15k | Jun 18, 24 | +32.7% |