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Category 5 hurricane landfall in US before 2027 directly triggers supply disruption scenario if storm impacts Gulf of Mexico refining infrastructure in Louisiana or Texas.
Category 4 hurricane landfall in US before 2027 could disrupt Gulf refining capacity and gasoline supplies if making landfall near Louisiana or Houston refinery clusters.
Total hurricane count in 2026 correlates with probability of major Gulf of Mexico refinery shutdowns and energy-supply spikes from tropical cyclone landfalls.
Major hurricane US landfall causes acute refinery shutdowns and upstream supply shocks in Gulf of Mexico energy production.
Named Atlantic storms indicate hurricane occurrence patterns affecting Gulf Coast refinery operations and regional supply chain disruption intensity.
More active 2026 Atlantic hurricane season increases probability of Gulf of Mexico and Louisiana refining center strikes causing supply disruptions.
Market on which US states experience hurricane landfall; resolution on Gulf Coast states (Louisiana, Texas) directly indicates refining infrastructure exposure.
Three or more 2026 Atlantic hurricanes increase probability of Gulf refinery disruptions and broader climate-driven supply volatility.
Gasoline price dynamics reflect refining capacity utilization; Gulf hurricane damage reducing output would pressure prices upward, affecting this threshold market.
Peak Atlantic hurricane season month influences timing and severity of Gulf refinery outages, affecting quarterly gasoline and crack spread dynamics.
Global crude steelmaking capacity affected by climate-driven supply disruptions, force majeure events, and rebuilding demands following commodity-sector shocks.
Datacenter capacity expansion is vulnerable to climate-induced supply disruptions affecting power infrastructure, cooling water availability, and construction materials.
California drought conditions at end of August 2027 reflect sustained heat dome and monsoon pattern failures affecting agricultural supply chains.
FEMA disaster request approval patterns under political regime affect insurance and reinsurance market confidence in disaster mitigation coverage and federal backstop reliability during climate-driven supply disruptions.
Hurricane landfall in continental US before October 2026 directly disrupts Gulf of Mexico refinery operations and commodity supply chains.
Climate impacts on human populations directly relate to supply disruptions from weather events, resource scarcity, and infrastructure damage that trigger sustained supply-side pressure across commodity and energy sectors
Indonesia alumina refinery capacity expansion contingent on sustained supply chains vulnerable to climate disruption and commodity-price pressure affecting rebuilding investment.
Australian datacenter capacity commitments face climate-related risks including water scarcity, extreme heat events, and potential force majeure impacts on construction and operations timelines.
US seizure of Punta Cardón refinery signals geopolitical energy supply constraints; refinery disruptions compound supply-side commodity shock scenarios.
Pacific hurricane season activity can disrupt agricultural regions and monsoon patterns affecting India and broader commodity supply systems.
Multi-year drought persistence in California correlates with sustained low snowpack across the Pacific Northwest, reducing hydroelectric generation at Bonneville and compressing wholesale power availability into CAISO ma
US-China datacenter capacity competition outcomes depend partly on climate resilience and supply-chain disruption patterns affecting both regions' infrastructure buildout capacity.
DRC copper supply capacity targets depend on mining-sector resilience to climate events and force majeure disruptions affecting commodity production rebuilding timelines.
Energy storage capacity expansion requires supply-chain stability for battery materials and components; climate disruptions and rebuild cycles affect deployment capacity targets.
Hydrogen electrolyzer capacity buildout to 100GW by 2033 requires sustained industrial supply chains; climate-induced disruptions to steel, semiconductors, and rare materials could delay manufacturing and installation ca
CBMM Araxá niobium capacity expansion subject to climate-driven operational disruptions; force majeure events (weather, water access) and reinsurance claims may delay or constrain nameplate capacity achievements.
US solar capacity growth depends on supply-chain resilience for semiconductor, rare-earth, and manufacturing inputs. Climate-driven disruptions to equipment sourcing and logistics affect renewable energy capacity buildou
All markets
0.154
Fair
N=1082
Economics
0.133
Good
N=43
Geopolitics
0.065
Good
N=31
Other
0.157
Fair
N=1000
Brier score measures calibration quality. A score of 0 = perfectly calibrated; 1 = maximally wrong. Good: <0.15 · Fair: 0.15–0.25 · Poor: >0.25. Recomputed weekly from resolved markets.
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