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AI industry downturn triggered by multiple events including NVIDIA performance decline, directly matching capex-cycle overshoot and crash scenario with GPU/data center overbuild resolution criteria.
Military encounter between China and Taiwan forces triggers market resolution. Taiwan Strait tensions and PLA exercises directly precede or coincide with talks collapse scenarios.
Quarterly capex spend among AI hyperscalers decreasing before 2028 directly triggers the hyperscaler-capex-slashed branch. Encompasses Microsoft, Meta, and GPU infrastructure investment cycles.
EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI lab directly materializes regulatory constraint on AI infrastructure development and compliance obligations.
China attack or blockade of Taiwan during 2026 directly reflects military escalation and tensions in the Taiwan Strait that would trigger talks collapse.
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Markets are matched to OpenWatch scenarios by an AI worker that runs every 4 hours. New markets and price changes may not be reflected immediately.
Nvidia retains a near-monopoly on AI training silicon with Blackwell ramping and Rubin sampling. CUDA software moat is intact. However hyperscaler capex peak debate is intensifying as AMD MI400 and custom ASICs from MSFT/META/AMZN gain share. Sovereign AI demand from Middle East and Europe partially offsets cyclical risk.
Thesis reviewed May 29, 2026
NVIDIA Corporation is headquartered in United States, which is currently showing moderate signals.
🇺🇸United States59NEUTRALView United States risk detail →💻Semiconductors2WATCH| Ticker | Company | Score | Gap | Signal Δ | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2330.TW | TSMC | 12 | — | ↓54% | NEUTRAL |
| ONTO | Onto Innovation Inc. | 12 | +17% | ↓54% | EARLY |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company | 12 | +12% | ↓54% | NEUTRAL |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | 12 | +14% | ↓54% | EARLY |
| WOLF | Wolfspeed Inc. | 12 | -29% | ↓54% | AVOID |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 12 | +16% | ↓54% | EARLY |
| UMC | United Microelectronics Corporation | 12 | +7% | ↓54% | NEUTRAL |
Investors who hold NVDA may also have indirect exposure through these country funds.
Saudi PIF announces $40B AI compute deal with Nvidia
MSFT custom Maia chip allocation grows
Rubin platform tape-out at TSMC N2
Estimates · Yahoo Finance · Not audited figures
| Politician | Party | Type | Amount | Trade Date | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam T. LiccardoCA | Sell | Unknown amount | Jul 21, 26 | ||
| Alan Armstrong | Buy | $50k–$100k | Mar 27, 26 | ||
| Alan Armstrong | Buy | $1k–$15k | Mar 30, 26 | ||
| Dan NewhouseWA | Sell | $1k–$15k | Jul 10, 26 | ||
| Cleo FieldsLA | Buy | $1k–$15k | Jun 26, 26 | ||
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Sell | $15k–$50k | Jun 30, 26 | ||
| Daniel MeuserPA | Sell | $1k–$15k | May 27, 26 | ||
| Matthew Robert Van EppsTN | Buy | $1k–$15k | Jun 16, 26 | ||
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Sell | $100k–$250k | May 8, 26 | ||
| Daniel MeuserPA | R | Sell | $1k–$15k | Apr 24, 26 | -3.8% |
| Donald J. TrumpFL | R | Buy | $100k–$100k | Mar 17, 26 | -6.5% |
| Donald J. TrumpFL | R | Buy | $1.0M–$1.0M | Jan 6, 26 | -6.5% |
| Donald J. TrumpFL | R | Buy | $250k–$250k | Mar 17, 26 | -6.5% |
| John McGuireVA | R | Buy | $1k–$15k | Apr 15, 26 | -6.5% |
| Donald J. TrumpFL | R | Buy | $100k–$100k | Feb 12, 26 | -6.5% |
| Donald J. TrumpFL | R | Buy | $100k–$100k | Mar 23, 26 | -6.5% |
| Donald J. TrumpFL | R | Buy | Unknown amount | Jan 23, 26 | -6.5% |
| Gilbert CisnerosCA | D | Sell | $1k–$15k | Apr 14, 26 | -1.9% |
| Elizabeth FletcherTX | D | Sell | $1k–$15k | Apr 8, 26 | +6.4% |
| Tim MooreNC | R | Buy | Unknown amount | Mar 24, 26 | -1.0% |