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Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER recession declaration directly triggers the deep-recession branch scenario, matching all core confirmatory signals.
US recession resolution via two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or NBER announcement between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 directly captures the recession phase that would trigger mild-recession-recovery scenario.
The US will experience stagflation before the end of 2026. Directly matches the scenario's core thesis of a stagflation-trap emerging from Fed policy reversal, combining high inflation with economic contraction.
US stagflation before 2026 midterms captures the timeframe and dual conditions of elevated inflation and weak growth that define stagflation traps triggered by monetary policy missteps.
US recession in 2026 is the primary trigger for fed-policy-reversal scenario, causing Fed quantitative easing and unemployment increases.
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Freeport is the largest publicly traded copper producer with low-cost Indonesian and Americas portfolio. Copper supply-demand structural deficit is widening with grid electrification, AI data center build-out, and EV adoption. Grasberg underground is fully ramped. Leach technology projects add zero-capex copper pounds. Best pure-play copper exposure.
Thesis reviewed May 29, 2026
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is headquartered in United States, which is currently showing moderate signals.
🇺🇸United States59NEUTRALView United States risk detail →⛏Mining6WATCH| Ticker | Company | Score | Gap | Signal Δ | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AG | First Majestic Silver Corp. | 15 | +13% | ↓51% | EARLY |
| IVN | Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. | 15 | +17% | ↓51% | EARLY |
| RIO | Rio Tinto plc | 15 | +10% | ↓51% | EARLY |
| SAND | Sandstorm Gold Royalties Ltd. | 15 | +10% | ↓51% | EARLY |
| FM | First Quantum Minerals Ltd. | 15 | -7% | ↓51% | AVOID |
| GOLD | Barrick Gold Corporation | 15 | +11% | ↓51% | EARLY |
| NEM | Newmont Corporation | 15 | +10% | ↓51% | EARLY |
Investors who hold FCX may also have indirect exposure through these country funds.
Copper price hits $5/lb on TC/RC collapse
Indonesia smelter complete, exports normalized
AI data center electrification fuels copper demand forecasts
Estimates · Yahoo Finance · Not audited figures
| Politician | Party | Type | Amount | Trade Date | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Buy | $1k–$15k | Mar 27, 26 | ||
| Josh GottheimerNJ | D | Buy | $1k–$15k | Apr 15, 26 | +11.9% |
| Josh GottheimerNJ | D | Buy | $1k–$15k | Sep 24, 24 | +35.1% |
| Josh GottheimerNJ | D | Buy | $1k–$15k | Jul 19, 24 | +54.3% |
| Josh GottheimerNJ | D | Buy | $1k–$15k | Jun 18, 24 | +32.7% |